Envisioning Nano Release Dynamics in a Changing World: Using Dynamic Probabilistic Modeling to Assess Future...

The need for an environmental risk assessment for engineered nanomaterials (ENM) necessitates the knowledge about their environmental emissions. Material flow models (MFA) have been used to provide predicted environmental emissions but most current nano-MFA models consider neither the rapid development of ENM production nor the fact that a large proportion of ENM are entering an in-use stock and are released from products over time (i.e., have a lag phase). Here we use dynamic probabilistic material flow modeling to predict scenarios of the future flows of four ENM (nano-TiO₂, nano-ZnO, nano-Ag and CNT) to environmental compartments and to quantify their amounts in (temporary) sinks such as the in-use stock and ("final") environmental sinks such as soil and sediment. In these scenarios, we estimate likely future amounts if the use and distribution of ENM in products continues along current trends (i.e., a business-as-usual approach) and predict the effect of hypothetical trends in the market development of nanomaterials, such as the emergence of a new widely used product or the ban on certain substances, on the flows of nanomaterials to the environment in years to come. We show that depending on the scenario and the product type affected, significant changes of the flows occur over time, driven by the growth of stocks and delayed release dynamics.