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Recent increase in oceanic carbon uptake driven by weaker upper-ocean overturning.
Tim DeVries1,2, Mark Holzer3,4, Francois Primeau5
1Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, California 93106, USA.
Nature
|February 10, 2017
Summary
Ocean circulation changes, not emissions, are driving shifts in the ocean carbon dioxide (CO2) sink. Weakening circulation in the 2000s increased CO2 uptake, but may limit future absorption of anthropogenic CO2.
Area of Science:
- Oceanography
- Climate Science
- Biogeochemistry
Background:
- The ocean absorbs approximately 40% of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.
- Oceanic CO2 uptake rates showed a declining trend in the 1990s, followed by an increase in the 2000s.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the primary drivers of decadal variability in oceanic CO2 uptake.
- To quantify the impact of ocean circulation changes on the ocean's carbon sink.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a global inverse model to analyze ocean circulation patterns from the 1980s to 2000s.
- Employed a carbon cycling model to assess the influence of circulation changes on CO2 uptake.
Main Results:
- Enhanced upper-ocean overturning circulation in the 1990s led to increased outgassing of natural CO2, weakening the global sink.
- A reversal in this trend occurred in the 2000s as ocean circulation weakened, enhancing CO2 uptake.
- Decadal ocean circulation variability is identified as the main factor influencing oceanic CO2 sink changes.
Conclusions:
- Weakening ocean circulation is projected to strengthen the CO2 sink in the short term by sequestering CO2 in the deep ocean.
- Long-term weakening of ocean circulation may eventually limit the ocean's capacity to absorb anthropogenic CO2.
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