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Validation of Fistula Risk Score calculator in diverse North American HPB practices
Jan Grendar1, Zeljka Jutric1, Julie N Leal2
1Providence Portland Medical Center, Portland, OR, USA.
Background:
Fistula Risk Score (FRS) is a previously developed tool to assess the risk of clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) following pancreatoduodenectomy (PD).
Methods:
Prospectively collected databases from 4 university affiliated and non-affiliated HPB centers in United States and Canada were used. The influence of individual baseline characteristics, FRS and FRS group on CR-POPF was assessed in univariate and multivariate analyses. FRS calculator performance was assessed using a C-statistic.
Results:
444 patients were identified. Pathology, soft pancreas texture and pancreatic duct size were associated with CR-POPF rates (p < 0.001 for each); EBL was not (p = 0.067). The negligible risk group consisted of 50 (11.3%) patients, low risk of 118 (26.6%), moderate 234 (52.7%) and high risk group of 42 (9.5%) patients. The overall rate of CR-POPF was 20%. Of the patients in the negligible risk group, 2% developed CR-POPF, 13.6% of the low risk, 23.1% moderate and 42.9% in the high risk group (p < 0.001). Overall C-statistic was 0.719.
Conclusion:
FRS is robust and able to stratify the risk of developing CR-POPF following PD in diverse North American academic and non-academic institutions. The FRS should be used in research and to guide clinical management of patients post PD in these institutions.
