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Related Experiment Videos

A simple remedy for overprecision in judgment.

Uriel Haran1, Don A Moore2, Carey K Morewedge1

  • 1Carnegie Mellon University.

Judgment and Decision Making
|April 14, 2017
PubMed
Summary

Overprecision, a common overconfidence bias, can be significantly reduced using a new method that prompts individuals to consider all possible outcomes. This approach, Subjective Probability Interval Estimate (SPIES), improves judgment accuracy and broadens future estimations.

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Decision Science
  • Behavioral Economics

Background:

  • Overprecision is a well-established cognitive bias, representing a robust form of overconfidence.
  • Existing methods for mitigating overconfidence have shown limited success in addressing overprecision.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To introduce and validate a novel method for significantly reducing overprecision bias.
  • To gain insights into the causal mechanisms underlying overprecision.

Main Methods:

  • Developed and tested the Subjective Probability Interval Estimate (SPIES) method across three experiments.
  • SPIES requires participants to estimate the likelihood of discrete intervals within the full range of possible outcomes.
  • Evaluated the robustness of SPIES across varying range widths and interval granularities.
Keywords:
decision makinginterval estimatesjudgmentoverconfidenceoverprecisionsubjective probability

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Main Results:

  • The SPIES method demonstrated a significant reduction in overprecision compared to conventional methods.
  • The effectiveness of SPIES was consistent across different experimental parameters (range widths, interval sizes).
  • SPIES exhibited positive carryover effects, influencing subsequent judgments made with traditional confidence intervals.

Conclusions:

  • The Subjective Probability Interval Estimate (SPIES) method is a superior technique for reducing overprecision bias.
  • Considering the full spectrum of possible outcomes is key to mitigating this overconfidence.
  • SPIES has implications for improving judgment accuracy in various fields and enhancing decision-making processes.