An approach to and web-based tool for infectious disease outbreak intervention analysis

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Biology
• Public Health

Background:

• Infectious diseases pose a significant global health threat, leading to widespread mortality.
• Current infectious disease outbreak control relies on subjective surveillance and expert opinion, which are not always available.
• A gap exists between mathematical modeling and public health policy, hindering the development of practical decision-making tools.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a flexible and accessible modeling framework for infectious disease outbreak analysis.
• To bridge the gap between the infectious disease modeling community and public health decision-makers.
• To provide quantitative estimates of outbreak trajectories using available data.

Main Methods:

• Modified Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model incorporating disease control measures.
• Utilized parameter ranges instead of point estimates to reflect uncertainty.
• Developed a web user interface for broad accessibility and adoption.
• Applied the model to measles, norovirus, and influenza outbreaks.

Main Results:

• Demonstrated the feasibility of the modified SIR model for analyzing infectious disease outbreaks.
• The model provides quantitative estimates for outbreak trajectories, aiding in decision-making.
• The web interface facilitates broader use by public health professionals.

Conclusions:

• The developed SIR model with a web interface offers a practical tool for infectious disease outbreak management.
• Enhanced collaboration between modelers and public health officials is crucial for effective disease control.
• Further research is recommended to refine models and promote interdisciplinary interaction.