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USMLE Scores Predict Success in ABEM Initial Certification: A Multicenter Study.

Elie Harmouche¹, Nikhil Goyal^1,2, Ashley Pinawin¹

¹Henry Ford Hospital, Department of Emergency Medicine, Detroit, Michigan.

The Western Journal of Emergency Medicine

|April 25, 2017

Summary

Higher United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) scores, particularly Step 2 CK, predict success on American Board of Emergency Medicine (ABEM) certification exams. Established cutoff scores can identify residents likely to pass on their first attempt.

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Area of Science:

Medical Education
Emergency Medicine
Licensure Examinations

Background:

No prior data existed on the predictive value of USMLE scores for ABEM certification.
This study aimed to assess the association between USMLE performance and ABEM exam success.

Purpose of the Study:

To determine if USMLE Step 1 and Step 2 CK scores predict first-time success on ABEM qualifying and oral examinations.
To identify potential cutoff scores for USMLE exams that indicate a high likelihood of ABEM certification.

Main Methods:

Retrospective analysis of USMLE Step 1 and Step 2 CK scores from 197 residents graduating between 2009-2011.
Examined pass/fail rates for the first attempt at ABEM qualifying and oral examinations.
Calculated a composite score by summing USMLE Step 1 and Step 2 CK scores.

Main Results:

USMLE Step 2 CK and composite scores were stronger predictors of ABEM certification than Step 1 scores (AUC 0.800 and 0.759 vs. 0.656).
First-time pass rates for the ABEM qualifying exam were 95%, and 93% for the oral exam.
Specific USMLE scores (Step 1: 227, Step 2 CK: 225, Composite: 444) predicted a 95% chance of passing both board exams.

Conclusions:

Elevated USMLE Step 1, Step 2 CK, and composite scores correlate with improved performance on ABEM certification.
USMLE Step 2 CK emerged as the most significant predictor of ABEM exam success.
Defined USMLE cutoff scores can aid in predicting first-time success for ABEM initial certification.