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Has climate change driven urbanization in Africa?

J Vernon Henderson1, Adam Storeygard2, Uwe Deichmann3

  • 1London School of Economics.

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PubMed
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Climate change impacts Sub-Saharan African urbanization differently. Manufacturing cities grow with drier conditions, offering an escape from agricultural shocks, while market towns do not. Structural transformation is key to better climate change responses.

Keywords:
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Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Urban Studies
  • Development Economics

Background:

  • Sub-Saharan Africa has experienced significant drying over the past 50 years.
  • Urbanization patterns are influenced by climate shifts, but the relationship is complex and varies regionally.
  • The economic structure of cities (manufacturing vs. market towns) plays a crucial role in this dynamic.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the differentiated impacts of climate change, specifically drying, on urbanization and urban incomes in Sub-Saharan Africa.
  • To identify the heterogeneity in climate-urbanization links based on the economic function of cities.
  • To understand how structural transformation influences climate change adaptation in urban areas.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of large panel data of districts and cities across Sub-Saharan Africa.
  • Econometric modeling to assess the relationship between climate variables (drying) and urbanization metrics.
  • Distinguishing between manufacturing-oriented cities and market towns based on their economic activities.

Main Results:

  • In manufacturing-centered cities (25% of sample), drier conditions correlate with increased urbanization and higher urban incomes, acting as an "escape" from agricultural shocks.
  • In market towns (75% of sample), which primarily serve local agriculture, drying has minimal impact on urbanization or urban incomes due to reduced agricultural demand.
  • The lack of structural transformation in many African economies hinders a more robust urban response to climate change.

Conclusions:

  • Climate change impacts on urbanization in Sub-Saharan Africa are strongly differentiated by a city's economic base.
  • Manufacturing-oriented urban centers can benefit from drier conditions by absorbing rural migrants, while agriculture-dependent towns face stagnation.
  • Promoting structural transformation is essential for enhancing urban resilience and adaptation to climate change in the region.