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Tropospheric Warming Over The Past Two Decades.
Benjamin D Santer1, Susan Solomon2, Frank J Wentz3
1Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, 94550, USA. santer1@llnl.gov.
Scientific Reports
|May 26, 2017
Summary
Satellite data contradicts claims of a warming slowdown. Observed tropospheric warming significantly exceeds natural variability, indicating a clear warming trend over decades.
Area of Science:
- Climate science
- Atmospheric physics
Background:
- Recent claims suggest a "leveling off of warming" based on specific timeframes.
- Satellite temperature records provide a long-term observational dataset for climate analysis.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the validity of claims regarding a "leveling off of warming" using satellite temperature data.
- To compare observed tropospheric warming trends with climate model estimates of natural variability.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of satellite-derived tropospheric temperature trends over various 20-year periods.
- Comparison of observed trends with model-based estimates of internal climate variability.
- Assessment of warming trends over the full 38-year satellite record (1979-2016).
Main Results:
- Satellite temperature measurements do not support a "leveling off of warming" over the past two decades.
- Observed tropospheric warming trends are significantly larger than model estimates of natural variability for 20-year periods.
- Tropospheric warming from 1979 to 2016 is unprecedented relative to internal variability in most satellite datasets.
Conclusions:
- The observed warming trend is distinct from natural climate variability.
- Claims of a warming slowdown are not supported by satellite temperature evidence.
- Long-term satellite data indicates significant and potentially unprecedented tropospheric warming.
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