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Hydrologic resilience and Amazon productivity.

Anders Ahlström1,2, Josep G Canadell3, Guy Schurgers4

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Biases in Earth system models obscure Amazon rainforest climate predictions. Accounting for precipitation biases reveals a hydrological breakpoint at 2000mm, indicating Amazon resilience to climate change.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Climate Science
  • Earth System Science

Background:

  • The Amazon rainforest is critical for global carbon storage and biodiversity.
  • Its moist forest ecosystem relies on atmospheric convection for productivity and growth.
  • Current Earth system models (ESMs) show significant disagreement in simulating Amazonian climate and vegetation futures.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify the primary sources of uncertainty in ESMs for Amazon simulations.
  • To understand the key factors governing the Amazon's resilience to climate change.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of internal climate generation biases in ESMs.
  • Comparison of model outputs with empirical data and theoretical frameworks.
  • Investigation of hydrological relationships governing ecosystem processes.

Main Results:

  • Biases in internally generated precipitation are the main drivers of uncertainty in ESMs.
  • Models, data, and theory converge when precipitation biases are corrected.
  • A critical breakpoint in annual precipitation (~2000 mm) governs the transition between water-limited and water-saturated evapotranspiration.
  • This breakpoint appears stable under future climate scenarios, suggesting inherent resilience.

Conclusions:

  • Precipitation biases significantly impact ESM projections for the Amazon.
  • The Amazon ecosystem exhibits resilience, with a stable hydrological breakpoint.
  • Future changes in precipitation and land use are key determinants of Amazonian biomass and vegetation structure.