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International Climate Migration: Evidence for the Climate Inhibitor Mechanism and the Agricultural Pathway
Raphael J Nawrotzki1, Maryia Bakhtsiyarava2
1University of Minnesota, Minnesota Population Center, 225 19th Avenue South, 50 Willey Hall, Minneapolis, MN 55455, U.S.A.
Climate change impacts migration differently across regions. Excessive rain can drive migration in Senegal, while heat waves reduce it in Burkina Faso, showing complex climate-migration dynamics.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Demography
- Agricultural Science
Background:
- Climate change is often assumed to drive migration in developing countries.
- The relationship between climate, agriculture, and migration is complex and regionally varied.
- Existing research often overlooks climate inhibitor mechanisms and the agricultural pathway's nuances.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the climate-migration relationship in rural Burkina Faso and Senegal.
- To examine the effects of heat waves, cold snaps, droughts, and excessive precipitation on international outmigration.
- To explore the moderating role of agricultural productivity in the climate-migration nexus.
Main Methods:
- Utilized representative census data and high-resolution climate data from the Terra Populus system.
- Constructed four threshold-based climate measures to assess extreme weather events.
- Employed multi-level logit models and geographically weighted regression (GWR) for analysis.
Main Results:
- Excessive precipitation was found to increase international migration from Senegal.
- Heat waves were found to decrease international mobility in Burkina Faso, supporting the climate inhibitor mechanism.
- Droughts showed a conditional effect on international outmigration from Senegal, particularly in groundnut-producing areas.
- Climate change impacts on migration exhibited a clear seasonal pattern, linked to the growing season.
Conclusions:
- Climate change can inhibit migration, contrary to common assumptions.
- The agricultural pathway significantly moderates the impact of climate drivers on migration.
- Understanding regional and seasonal variations is crucial for effective climate adaptation and migration policies.
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