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Updated: Feb 19, 2026
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Measuring the Subjective Value of Risky and Ambiguous Options using Experimental Economics and Functional MRI Methods
Published on: September 19, 2012
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A Value Measure for Public-Sector Enterprise Risk Management: A TSA Case Study
Kenneth C Fletcher1, Ali E Abbas2
1Former Chief Risk Officer of the TSA and Kestrel Hawk Consulting, Inc., Gaithersburg, MD, USA.
Summary
This study introduces a public value measure to help public sector leaders assess policies and maximize citizen value. The analysis of Transportation Security Administration (TSA) programs supports expanding trusted traveler initiatives and enhancing passenger vetting.
Area of Science:
- Public Administration
- Decision Analysis
- Risk Management
Background:
- Public sector organizations face challenges in assessing policy value and managing enterprise risks.
- Existing methods may not adequately capture long-term impacts or low-probability, high-consequence events.
Purpose of the Study:
- To present a novel public value measure for evaluating public sector policy decisions.
- To apply this measure to Transportation Security Administration (TSA) programs for risk assessment.
Main Methods:
- Identification of public value components.
- Development of a public value account for quantifying risk scenario outcomes.
- Application of decision analysis tools, including stochastic dominance and certain equivalent calculations.
Main Results:
- The proposed measure quantifies the effects of short-term vs. long-term incentives and low-probability risks.
- Analysis of TSA programs indicates the value of expanding trusted traveler initiatives.
- Increased background vetting for expedited screening passengers is shown to be beneficial.
Conclusions:
- The public value measure provides a robust framework for government decision-making.
- The TSA case study highlights specific policy recommendations for enhancing security and efficiency.
- Decision analysis tools can be effectively integrated into public sector risk management.
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