Forest fire risk assessment-an integrated approach based on multicriteria evaluation

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Forestry
• Geographic Information Systems (GIS)

Background:

• Forest fires pose significant ecological and socioeconomic threats in regions like Mazandaran, Iran.
• Effective risk zoning is crucial for proactive fire management and mitigation strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate a forest fire risk zoning map for the Dohezar and Sehezar region.
• To apply the weighted linear combination method integrated with GIS and fuzzy logic for accurate risk assessment.

Main Methods:

• Identification of ecological and socioeconomic fire risk criteria using the Delphi method.
• Digitization of data layers and normalization of criteria using fuzzy logic within GIS.
• Integration of GIS with Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) and Analytical Network Process (ANP) for zonation.

Main Results:

• A high-accuracy forest fire risk map was generated for the study area.
• The map achieved 90% accuracy, validated by the Kappa coefficient (0.924) and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve.
• The developed model effectively estimates forest fire risk.

Conclusions:

• The weighted linear combination method, enhanced by fuzzy logic and GIS, is highly effective for forest fire risk zoning.
• The validated risk map provides a reliable tool for forest fire management in the Dohezar and Sehezar region.
• The study highlights the potential for applying similar methodologies in other fire-prone forested areas.