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Updated: Feb 18, 2026
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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
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Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey's rainfall
1Lorenz Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 emanuel@mit.edu.
Summary
The annual probability of Hurricane Harvey-level rainfall in Texas is projected to increase significantly due to climate change. By 2081-2100, the chance of such extreme rainfall events could reach 18%.
Area of Science:
- Climate science
- Extreme weather events
- Tropical cyclone research
Background:
- Hurricane Harvey caused unprecedented rainfall, highlighting the need to understand extreme precipitation events.
- Climate change may alter the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and associated rainfall.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate the current and future annual probability of hurricane rainfall events with magnitudes similar to Hurricane Harvey.
- To assess the impact of climate change on extreme rainfall probabilities in Texas.
Main Methods:
- Downscaling of tropical cyclone data from multiple climate reanalyses and climate models.
- Statistical analysis to estimate annual probabilities of area-averaged rainfall.
Main Results:
- The annual probability of 500 mm of area-integrated rainfall in Texas was approximately 1% during 1981-2000.
- Under IPCC AR5 RCP 8.5, this probability is projected to increase to 18% by 2081-2100.
- A linear increase suggests a 6% annual probability in 2017, a sixfold rise since the late 20th century.
Conclusions:
- Climate change is substantially increasing the risk of extreme rainfall events in Texas.
- Future projections indicate a significantly higher likelihood of Harvey-magnitude rainfall events.
- Urgent climate mitigation and adaptation strategies are necessary to address escalating extreme weather risks.
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