Wind-generated Electricity in China: Decreasing Potential, Inter-annual Variability and Association with Changing...

Area of Science:

• Meteorology
• Climate Science
• Renewable Energy

Background:

• China possesses the world's largest market for wind-generated electricity.
• Financial returns and carbon reduction from wind power are sensitive to wind resource variability.
• Understanding long-term wind resource trends is crucial for energy management.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate hourly wind-generated electricity in China from 1979 to 2015.
• To analyze the secular trends and variability in wind power generating potential.
• To identify factors influencing wind resource changes in China.

Main Methods:

• Utilized assimilated meteorological database for wind data.
• Estimated hourly wind-generated electricity at ~50km x 50km resolution.
• Employed linear regression incorporating Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) indices.

Main Results:

• A secular decrease in wind power generating potential was observed across China from 1979 to 2015.
• The most significant declines occurred in western Inner Mongolia (15±7%) and northern Gansu (17±8%).
• This decrease is associated with long-term warming near the Siberian High (SH) and global average surface temperatures.

Conclusions:

• Long-term warming trends and climate oscillations (PDO, AO) significantly influence China's wind power potential.
• A linear regression model incorporating these factors explains interannual wind power variability.
• Improved long-term forecasting of wind resources can enhance future energy system management.