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How many doctors should we train for Sri Lanka? System dynamics modelling for training needs

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Sri Lanka has a current doctor shortage, but supply is projected to meet demand by 2025/26. Opening new medical schools is not urgently needed, but regular health workforce analysis is recommended.

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Area of Science:

  • Health economics
  • Health workforce planning
  • System dynamics modeling

Background:

  • Sri Lanka has achieved significant health gains relative to its expenditure.
  • Approximately 1450 doctors join the health system annually.
  • Debate exists regarding the necessity of new medical schools to address perceived doctor shortages.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To determine the required number of doctors for Sri Lanka.
  • To forecast future doctor supply and demand dynamics.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized system dynamics, a methodology for analyzing complex feedback systems.
  • Developed and simulated two sub-models: "need" and "supply" for a 15-year period (2017-2032).

Main Results:

  • The current doctor-to-population ratio is 1:671, with 91% of the need met.
  • A doctor shortage exists presently, but supply is expected to meet demand by 2025/26.
  • Increasing doctor numbers excessively could lead to an oversupply later in the decade.

Conclusions:

  • There is no immediate need to establish new medical schools.
  • Regular, comprehensive health workforce analyses (every 5 years) are crucial for informed decision-making on doctor training numbers.