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Probabilistic Solar Wind Forecasting Using Large Ensembles of Near-Sun Conditions With a Simple One-Dimensional

Mathew J Owens1, Pete Riley2

  • 1Space and Atmospheric Electricity Group, Department of Meteorology University of Reading Reading UK.

Space Weather : the International Journal of Research & Applications
|February 6, 2018
PubMed
Summary
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This study introduces a new method to quantify space weather forecast uncertainty using ensemble solar wind speed predictions. This approach provides more actionable forecasts, increasing economic value by better managing mitigating actions.

Area of Science:

  • Space Physics
  • Heliophysics
  • Computational Astrophysics

Background:

  • Accurate long-lead space weather forecasting relies on predicting near-Earth solar wind.
  • Current methods use coronal models and empirical relations, lacking uncertainty quantification.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a complementary method for quantifying space weather forecast uncertainty.
  • To exploit near-Sun solar wind data from coronal models for ensemble forecasting.

Main Methods:

  • Generated a large ensemble (N=576) of near-Sun solar wind speed time series by sampling various latitudes.
  • Employed a computationally efficient one-dimensional "upwind" scheme to propagate conditions to Earth.
  • Utilized the variance of the ensemble to measure forecast uncertainty.
Keywords:
MHDensemblesforecastingsolar wind

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Main Results:

  • The variance in the near-Earth solar wind speed ensemble accurately quantifies forecast uncertainty.
  • The upwind ensemble method provides more actionable forecasts compared to deterministic methods.
  • Economic value of forecasts increases, especially when false alarms are costly.

Conclusions:

  • The ensemble forecasting approach effectively quantifies space weather prediction uncertainty.
  • This method enhances the practical utility and economic benefits of space weather forecasts.
  • The technique offers a valuable tool for operational space weather prediction and risk management.