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Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins?
Christopher J Hart1, Ryan P Kelly1, Scott F Pearson2
1School of Marine and Environmental Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America.
Peerj
|March 30, 2018
Summary
Climate change threatens Tufted Puffin (Fratercula cirrhata) nesting sites. Rising sea surface temperatures are projected to make over 92% of California Current nesting habitat unsuitable by 2050.
Area of Science:
- Marine Ecology
- Climate Change Biology
- Conservation Science
Background:
- Tufted Puffin (Fratercula cirrhata) populations have declined significantly, particularly in the southern parts of their range.
- Declines are linked to climate-related factors, specifically sea-surface temperature impacts on prey availability within the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem.
- Citizen groups have petitioned for endangered species status in the contiguous US due to these population decreases.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model projected shifts in suitable nesting habitat for Tufted Puffins by 2050.
- To assess the impact of two future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios (RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5) on habitat suitability.
- To identify key climate drivers, such as sea-surface temperature, affecting nesting conditions.
Main Methods:
- Utilized three species distribution models (SDMs) to predict habitat suitability.
- Evaluated projections under both business-as-usual (RCP 8.5) and moderated (RCP 4.5) carbon emission scenarios.
- Focused on the influence of marine and terrestrial temperatures, particularly mean summer sea-surface temperatures.
Main Results:
- Warming marine and terrestrial temperatures are key drivers of reduced nesting habitat suitability in the California Current.
- Mean summer sea-surface temperatures exceeding 15°C are predicted to render large areas unsuitable for breeding.
- Over 92% of currently suitable nesting habitat in the California Current is projected to become unsuitable under both emission scenarios.
- A net loss of over 21% of suitable nesting sites is predicted across the entire North American range, irrespective of emission reductions.
Conclusions:
- Continued declines of Tufted Puffin populations are expected, especially in southern breeding colonies.
- There is a significant risk of near-term extirpation for Tufted Puffins in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem.
- Climate change, driven by greenhouse gas emissions, poses a substantial threat to the long-term viability of Tufted Puffin populations.
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