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What Are the Odds? Modern Relevance and Bayes Factor Solutions for MacAlister's Problem From the 1881 Educational
Tahira Jamil1, Maarten Marsman1, Alexander Ly1
1University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Educational and Psychological Measurement
|May 26, 2018
Abstract:
In 1881, Donald MacAlister posed a problem in the Educational Times that remains relevant today. The problem centers on the statistical evidence for the effectiveness of a treatment based on a comparison between two proportions. A brief historical sketch is followed by a discussion of two default Bayesian solutions, one based on a one-sided test between independent rates, and one on a one-sided test between dependent rates. We demonstrate the current-day relevance of MacAlister's original question with a modern-day example about the effectiveness of an educational program.