Estimate of Health Burden on Smoking-associated Oral Cancer in Shanghai and its Surrounding Areas

To evaluate the temporal trend of inpatients with smoking-associated oral cancer in Shanghai and its surrounding areas and to forecast the public health burden in the next decade.

Data of inpatients with oral cancer were retrieved from Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital during a 15-year period. The annual numbers of inpatients were compared by Chi-test. The hospitalization expenditures were compared by Student's t test. The trend analysis and inpatient forecasting were performed by exponential smoothing, regression models, and the forecasting function in Excel software. The financial burden of smoking-associated oral cancer was calculated by polynomial equation.

The annual number of inpatients with oral cancer increased during the study period. Most male patients were reported to have a smoking habit. Among the three estimation methods, polynomial regression model was most fitted to the existing data. By a conservative estimation, the public health burden of smoking-associated oral cancer patients will be 120 million RMB by the year 2026, not including the cost by prevalent patients and the patients' family members.

Smoking-associated oral cancer will cost a lot of public resource in the next decade. Efforts should be made to lower the amount of tobacco consumption.