Foresight in health sciences using CLA method.

Area of Science:

• Health Sciences
• Futures Studies
• Science Policy

Background:

• Health system development is contingent on scientific progress.
• Increasing complexity and risks necessitate foresight in health sciences.
• Understanding future trajectories is vital for navigating health system challenges.

Purpose of the Study:

• To conduct a futures study on health sciences.
• To analyze current trends and potential future scenarios.
• To identify challenges and suggest a paradigm shift in health sciences.

Main Methods:

• Futures studies conducted in four steps.
• Literature review, statistical analysis, focus groups, and scenario planning utilized.
• Cause-level analysis and syntactic frameworks employed for data analysis.

Main Results:

• Ambiguity in the value system and discourse-linkages within legal health sciences documents.
• Identification of 24 trends, with political and economic factors driving four main scenarios.
• Predicted dominance of postmodern discourse, science as a wealth-generation tool, decentralized universities, and decreased quantitative growth in health sciences.

Conclusions:

• Continuation of current trends leads to an undesirable future for health sciences.
• Lack of a unique, doctrine-based discourse in health sciences is a significant challenge.
• A paradigm shift through new approaches and disciplines is recommended for health sciences.