[Motor Vehicle Pollution Control Scenarios of Beijing Subsidiary Administrative Center Based on Road Traffic Flow]

In this study, the scenario analysis method was used to establish motor vehicle exhaust emission inventories based on road-traffic-flow information of the Beijing subsidiary administrative center under different scenarios, with a base year of 2015. The pollutant emissions in 2020 and 2025 were forecast by calculating the motor vehicle pollutant emission inventories of future road-traffic-flow information and various scenarios. The results showed that the kilometers travelled via motor vehicles and the road network density of the Beijing subsidiary administrative center both will increase continuously over the next 10 years. Compared with the baseline scenario, each control scenario had a certain degree of reduction in pollutant emissions, and the reduction rates increased with the strengthening of the measures. The emission reductions of pollutants were significant in the new energy vehicle promotion scenario, especially for NO and PM. The effect of emission reduction of every pollutant was significant in the outgoing vehicle restriction scenario. Elimination of highly polluting vehicles had a significant effect in the short term, but the effect of long-term reduction was weak. The combined scenario achieved the best reduction rate of pollutant emissions, with CO, NO, HC, and PM decreasing by 39.0%, 58.7%, 49.2%, and 55.5%, respectively.