Warmer Weather as a Risk Factor for Cellulitis: A Population-based Investigation

The incidence of cellulitis is highly seasonal and this seasonality may be explained by changes in the weather, specifically, temperature.

Using data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (years 1998 to 2011), we identified the geographic location for 773719 admissions with the primary diagnosis (ICD-9-CM code) of cellulitis and abscess of finger and toe (681.XX) and other cellulitis and abscess (682.XX). Next, we used data from the National Climatic Data Center to estimate the monthly average temperature for each of these different locations. We modeled the odds of an admission having a primary diagnosis of cellulitis as a function of demographics, payer, location, patient severity, admission month, year, and the average temperature in the month of admission.

We found that the odds of an admission with a primary diagnosis of cellulitis increase with higher temperatures in a dose-response fashion. For example, relative to a cold February with average temperatures under 40° F, an admission in a hot July with an average temperature exceeding 90°F has 66.63% higher odds of being diagnosed with cellulitis (95% confidence interval [CI]: [61.2, 72.3]). After controlling for temperature, the estimated amplitude of seasonality of cellulitis decreased by approximately 71%.

At a population level, admissions to the hospital for cellulitis risk are strongly associated with warmer weather.