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Nonlinear societal change: The perspective of dynamical systems
Andrzej Nowak1,2, Robin R Vallacher2
1Department of Psychology, University of Warsaw, Poland.
The British Journal of Social Psychology
|August 23, 2018
Summary
This study introduces a complex systems model for understanding rapid social change, revealing that societies in transition exhibit dual realities of old and new norms. This dynamic model captures potential reversals in societal attitudes.
Area of Science:
- Social Sciences
- Sociology
- Complex Systems Theory
Background:
- Societal transitions are influenced by unique social, historical, political, and economic factors.
- Understanding rapid social change requires analyzing the dynamic processes within complex systems.
Purpose of the Study:
- To present a formal, minimalist model of rapid societal transitions in norms and attitudes.
- To describe the potential for rapid reversals of these societal transitions.
- To challenge models that solely focus on central tendency changes during rapid social change.
Main Methods:
- Development of a formal dynamic model.
- Computer simulations to implement and test the model.
- Validation using empirical data from Eastern Europe's post-communist transition.
Main Results:
- The model predicts that societies undergoing rapid change exist in dual realities, reflecting both old and new norms.
- Focusing only on the central tendency of societal attitudes provides a misleading view of rapid social change.
- The model successfully accounts for the complex dynamics observed during Eastern Europe's transition.
Conclusions:
- Rapid social change is best understood through the lens of complex systems dynamics.
- Societal transitions are characterized by a coexistence of old and new attitudes, not just a shift in the average.
- The proposed model offers a more accurate framework for analyzing societal transformations and their potential reversals.
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