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How do climate-related uncertainties influence 2 and 1.5 °C pathways?
Xuanming Su1, Hideo Shiogama2, Katsumasa Tanaka2
11Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan.
Sustainability Science
|August 28, 2018
Summary
Uncertainties in carbon cycle and climate parameters significantly impact mitigation costs. Achieving 1.5°C or 2°C climate targets involves substantial CO2 emission differences and economic impacts.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Environmental Economics
- Integrated Assessment Modeling
Background:
- Climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies are crucial for achieving global temperature targets.
- Uncertainties in climate system parameters can significantly affect the projected costs and feasibility of these strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the impact of uncertainties in carbon cycle and climate parameters on mitigation and adaptation costs.
- To assess these impacts for achieving the 1.5°C and 2°C global temperature targets by 2100.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a stochastic version of the Simple Climate Model for Optimization (SCM4OPT), an integrated assessment model.
- Analyzed the propagation of parameter uncertainties to CO2 emission levels, radiative forcing, carbon prices, and GDP losses.
Main Results:
- Projected CO2 emission differences in 2100 range from 12.0 GtCO2 for the 1.5°C target to 20.5 GtCO2 for the 2°C target.
- Estimated 2100 carbon prices are $713/tCO2 for 1.5°C and $482/tCO2 for 2°C.
- Anticipated GDP losses are 2.0% for 1.5°C and 1.9% for 2°C by 2100.
Conclusions:
- Parameter uncertainties introduce significant variability into climate mitigation cost estimates.
- Achieving ambitious climate targets like 1.5°C necessitates higher mitigation efforts and incurs greater economic costs compared to the 2°C target.
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