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Do Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence?

David Deming1

  • 1College of Arts & Sciences, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019 USA.

Philosophia (Ramat-Gan, Israel)
|August 31, 2018
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence (ECREE) is often misused. True extraordinary claims are contradicted by massive evidence, not just novel ideas. Misapplying ECREE hinders scientific progress.

Keywords:
AnomalyHumeMiracleParanormalSagan

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Area of Science:

  • Philosophy of Science
  • History of Science

Background:

  • Carl Sagan popularized "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence" (ECREE) in 1979.
  • The term "extraordinary" lacks a precise definition, leading to the aphorism's misuse.
  • ECREE is often invoked to discredit scientific anomalies and cast doubt on established hypotheses.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To clarify the definition of "extraordinary claims" and "extraordinary evidence."
  • To analyze the historical origins and philosophical underpinnings of ECREE.
  • To address the misuse of ECREE in scientific discourse and its impact on innovation.

Main Methods:

  • Historical analysis of Enlightenment criticisms of miracles, particularly Hume's essay "On Miracles."
  • Philosophical examination of the concept of evidence in science.
  • Analysis of the rhetorical application of ECREE in contemporary scientific discussions.

Main Results:

  • An "extraordinary claim" is precisely defined as one directly contradicted by a massive amount of existing evidence.
  • "Extraordinary evidence" refers to an exceptionally large number of observations, not a different category of evidence.
  • Novelty or violation of human consensus does not constitute an "extraordinary claim."

Conclusions:

  • The misuse of ECREE to suppress innovation and maintain scientific orthodoxy should be avoided.
  • A clear understanding of ECREE's definition is crucial for advancing reliable scientific knowledge.
  • Adherence to rigorous evidential standards, as historically defined, is essential for scientific integrity.