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Forensic analysis of Turkish elections in 2017-2018
Peter Klimek1,2, Raúl Jiménez3, Manuel Hidalgo4
1Section for Science of Complex Systems, CeMSIIS, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Plos One
|October 6, 2018
Summary
Forensic analysis of Turkish elections reveals significant evidence of ballot stuffing and voter rigging in the 2017 referendum and 2018 elections. These irregularities suggest potential fraud that could have influenced election outcomes.
Area of Science:
- Political Science
- Statistics
- Forensic Analysis
Background:
- Turkey's 2017 Constitutional Referendum granted extensive executive powers to President Erdoğan.
- The referendum faced numerous allegations of electoral misconduct, including coercion and invalid ballots.
Purpose of the Study:
- To conduct an election forensic analysis of Turkish elections.
- To statistically assess the plausibility and impact of alleged electoral irregularities.
Main Methods:
- Application of statistical forensics tests to identify electoral malpractices.
- Testing for ballot stuffing and voter rigging using numerical anomaly detection.
Main Results:
- Systematic statistical evidence for ballot stuffing and voter rigging in the 2017 referendum.
- 11% of stations showed signs of ballot stuffing (a 4-sigma event).
- Similar irregularities were found in the 2018 presidential and parliamentary elections.
Conclusions:
- The findings indicate systematic biases and potential fraud in Turkish elections.
- Further investigation is needed to combat electoral malpractices.
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