Convergence or Divergence? Life Expectancy Patterns in Post-communist Countries, 1959-2010.

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Public Health
• Socioeconomics

Background:

• Central and Eastern European countries and the Soviet Union experienced stalled mortality reduction from the 1960s-1970s.
• This was followed by significant life expectancy fluctuations and declines in the 1980s and 1990s.

Purpose of the Study:

• To statistically assess life expectancy convergence among post-communist countries since the 1990s.
• To determine if these nations are converging towards geopolitical blocks or forming multiple 'convergence clubs'.

Main Methods:

• Applied a complex convergence club methodology with recursive analysis.
• Utilized data from the Human Mortality Database for 30 OECD countries (including 11 post-communist) from 1959-2010.

Main Results:

• Post-communist countries diverged into multiple life expectancy convergence clubs, rather than uniformly approaching Western levels.
• The lowest performers appear trapped in low-level equilibria, while top performers like the Czech Republic show signs of catching up.
• Increased heterogeneity within post-communist countries, with distinct gender and age patterns emerging over time.

Conclusions:

• The study is the first to use empirical convergence club methodology to analyze long-term life expectancy in post-communist regions.
• This analysis situates post-communist life expectancy dynamics within the broader context of OECD countries.
• The findings highlight the complex, long-term divergence in life expectancy patterns within the post-communist region.