Analysis of the Eurotransplant Kidney Allocation Algorithm: How Should We Balance Utility and Equity?

Since 2014, expected graft and recipient survival are matched by the U.S. kidney allocation system to improve organ utility. This mechanism is based on the kidney donor profile index (KDPI) and the estimated posttransplant survival score (EPTS). Here we analyzed 1. the transferability of these scores into the Eurotransplant (ET) region and 2. the extent to which the ET kidney allocation algorithm promotes utility.

We studied data of 262 kidney transplantations performed at the University Hospital Kiel between 2000 and 2009 (median follow-up, 9.94 years).

Multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed that only the variables donor age of the KDPI and recipient's age of the EPTS have a significant value as predictors of posttransplant graft and recipient survival. The other variables showed no additional predictive value. Analyzing all kidneys allocated in the ET kidney allocation system and the European Senior Program, we found that donor and recipient's age and KDPI and EPTS were weakly correlated (r_age-age = 0.5, P < .001; r_KDPI-EPTS = 0.4, P < .01). If both programs were analyzed separately, no correlation between donor and recipient's age and between KDPI and EPTS was detected.

The ET kidney allocation algorithm poorly matched predicted graft and recipient survival at our center. A better age-matching may improve organ utility.