Solar Sources of Interplanetary Magnetic Clouds Leading to Helicity Prediction

This study identifies the solar origins of magnetic clouds that are observed at 1 AU and predicts the helical handedness of these clouds from the solar surface magnetic fields. We started with the magnetic clouds listed by the Magnetic Field Investigation (MFI) team supporting NASA's Wind spacecraft in what is known as the MFI table and worked backward in time to identify solar events that produced these clouds. Our methods utilize magnetograms from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager instrument on the Solar Dynamics Observatory spacecraft so that we could only analyze MFI entries after the beginning of 2011. This start date and the end date of the MFI table gave us 37 cases to study. Of these we were able to associate only eight surface events with clouds detected by Wind at 1 AU. We developed a simple algorithm for predicting the cloud helicity that gave the correct handedness in all eight cases. The algorithm is based on the conceptual model that an ejected flux tube has two magnetic origination points at the positions of the strongest radial magnetic field regions of opposite polarity near the places where the ejected arches end at the solar surface. We were unable to find events for the remaining 29 cases: lack of a halo or partial halo coronal mass ejection in an appropriate time window, lack of magnetic and/or filament activity in the proper part of the solar disk, or the event was too far from disk center. The occurrence of a flare was not a requirement for making the identification but in fact flares, often weak, did occur for seven of the eight cases.