Microeconomic forecasting: Constructing commensurable futures of educational reforms

Area of Science:

• Economics
• Sociology of Economics
• Science and Technology Studies (STS)

Background:

• The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis pioneered macroeconomic forecasting.
• There's a growing interest in microeconomic forecasting for policy analysis.
• The study examines the shift from macro to micro forecasting within a leading economic institution.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the emergence of microeconomic forecasting at the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
• To understand the institutional preconditions for this shift.
• To investigate the consequences of microeconomic forecasting for policy-relevant evidence.

Main Methods:

• Historical analysis of institutional changes.
• Epistemic practice analysis of microeconomic forecasting.
• Examination of the integration of diverse economic expertise.

Main Results:

• Microeconomic forecasting enables the quantification of distant future economic impacts, such as performance pay's effect on GDP.
• This practice integrates various economic expertise to assess educational reforms.
• The approach both facilitates and restricts the delivery of policy-relevant evidence.

Conclusions:

• Microeconomic forecasting represents a new epistemic practice with significant institutional and political implications.
• This practice shapes how future policy options are understood and debated.
• The study contributes to understanding economic policy devices, challenging market biases in STS research.