Commitment-Failures Are Unlikely to Undermine Public Support for the Paris Agreement

Area of Science:

• Environmental policy
• International relations
• Public opinion

Background:

• The success of the 2015 Paris Agreement relies on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
• A key concern is whether domestic support for international environmental agreements erodes if major emitting countries do not meet their targets.
• Understanding public preferences is crucial for effective climate policy design.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate public support for international climate agreements in China and the United States.
• To examine how information about other countries' emission reduction efforts affects domestic support for climate agreements.
• To assess the viability of the Paris Agreement's approach to international climate cooperation.

Main Methods:

• Survey-embedded experiment with 3000 respondents in China and 3007 in the United States.
• Randomized exposure of respondents to different information scenarios regarding other countries' climate actions.
• Analysis of public preferences for international climate agreement design and contribution levels.

Main Results:

• Citizens in China and the United States demonstrate strong preferences regarding the design of international climate agreements and the contributions of other nations.
• Contrary to predictions, information indicating that other countries are failing to reduce emissions did not decrease public support for the design of international agreements.
• The study found no evidence that the Paris Agreement's framework itself undermines public support.

Conclusions:

• The Paris Agreement's approach, centered on Nationally Determined Contributions, does not appear to be a primary obstacle to public support for international climate cooperation.
• Public opinion in major economies like China and the US remains supportive of climate action, irrespective of perceived non-compliance by other nations.
• While challenges to achieving significant emission reductions persist, the foundational structure of the Paris Agreement is not inherently problematic from a public support perspective.