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Possession in Football: More Than a Quantitative Aspect - A Mixed Method Study.
Claudio A Casal1, M Teresa Anguera2, Rubén Maneiro3,4
1Department of Science of Physical Activity and Sport, Catholic University of Valencia San Vicente Mártir, Valencia, Spain.
Successful elite football teams optimize possession time through specific strategies, unlike unsuccessful teams. This study identifies key factors for a more effective ball possession model in football.
Area of Science:
- Sports Science
- Football Analytics
- Performance Analysis
Background:
- Elite football teams' possession time is a critical performance indicator.
- Understanding factors influencing possession duration is key to developing effective tactical models.
- Previous research often lacks a differentiated analysis between successful and unsuccessful teams.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify and differentiate factors determining possession times for successful and unsuccessful elite football teams.
- To develop a more effective football possession model based on empirical evidence.
- To analyze offensive sequences from the 2016 UEFA Euro France tournament.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of 2,636 offensive sequences from the 2016 UEFA Euro knockout stages.
- Systematic observation and coding of video recordings, analyzing performance indicators like phase, intention, and field zone.
- Statistical analysis using ANOVA and Box-Cox transformation, including predictive modeling.
Main Results:
- Successful teams' possession time is influenced by type of start-up, intention, and field zone.
- Unsuccessful teams' possession time is primarily determined by intention and match status.
- Predictive models indicate successful teams favor longer possessions in offensive zones when leading and defensive zones when drawing, initiated by transitions.
Conclusions:
- Key factors differentiating possession time between successful and unsuccessful teams have been identified.
- A more effective ball possession model can be designed by leveraging these findings.
- Insights can enhance offensive performance and strategic planning in elite football.
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