[The GLORI-COPD score: detection of COPD patients at risk of complications]

GLObal RIsk of severe outcomes in COPD patients.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a commonly under-diagnosed disease. This study aimed to develop a screening tool for COPD patients with a high risk of complications, taking into account COPD severity and associated co-morbidity.

Two Delphi rounds were conducted to select the items for a preliminary score. Subsequently, this score was submitted to patients with a possible diagnosis of COPD attending for pulmonary function tests in hospital and primary care. Items associated with a diagnosis of COPD and its severity were examined with multivariate logistic regressions. Associated items in our analyses and in the literature were integrated into the score. The score was developed with a factorial analysis and optimized according to ROC curves.

Fifteen items were selected with the Delphi method, of which six were retained after logistic regression. They were submitted to 64 patients (mean age: 59+/-13.6 years). Factors associated with COPD were smoking ≥10 pack-years and a history of acute exacerbations. Low levels of activity and coughing up sputum were associated with COPD severity. Age ≥40 years and co-morbidities were added to the score. According to the factorial analysis, a two-stage score was developed assessing first the diagnosis of COPD and then the risk of severe outcomes. It showed a sensitivity of 71 %, a specificity of 77 %. The positive and negative predictive value were respectively 28 % and 96 %.

The score was an acceptable screening tool to identify COPD patients with high risk of complications. Nevertheless, validation needs be performed in a larger population to allow its use in primary care.