Understanding Community Resilience from a PRA Perspective Using Binary Decision Diagrams.
Saeed Nozhati1, Bruce R Ellingwood1, Hussam Mahmoud1
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
Summary
This study uses probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to model community food security, assessing earthquake impacts on food supply chains and infrastructure in Gilroy, CA. It highlights PRA
Area of Science:
- Systems Engineering and Risk Analysis
- Community Resilience and Food Security
- Infrastructure Interdependencies
Background:
- Community resilience is crucial for mitigating disaster impacts.
- Food security is a key component of community well-being, vulnerable to infrastructure disruptions.
- Existing risk assessment tools often lack integration for complex, interconnected systems.
Purpose of the Study:
- To adapt industrial and nuclear Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methodologies for community resilience.
- To model and evaluate the food security of a community (Gilroy, CA) considering its built environment as an integrated system.
- To identify critical infrastructure interdependencies affecting food supply during an earthquake.
Main Methods:
- Utilized PRA tools and techniques, including fault and event trees, to model food supply continuity.
- Employed Binary Decision Diagrams (BDDs) for efficient analysis of system performance.
- Integrated food retailers, power networks, water systems, and bridges into a unified system model.
Main Results:
- Identified shortcomings in traditional system analysis methods for assessing community resilience.
- Quantified the impact of infrastructure failures (power, water, bridges) on food supply.
- Utilized importance factors to rank the contribution of various elements to food insecurity risk.
Conclusions:
- PRA offers a robust framework for evaluating community resilience and food security.
- The integrated systems approach reveals critical interdependencies impacting food supply.
- The methodology is adaptable to various infrastructure systems and other hazard scenarios.
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