THE FORECAST OF LETHAL OUTCOME IN CHRONIC LEUKEMIA PATIENTS WITH PNEUMONIA

The aim of the study - to create a mathematical model for forecasting of poor pneumonia outcome in patients with chronic leukemia in order to optimize treatment. Study included 323 patients with pneumonia and chronic leukemia. All indicators obtained in the study were entered into electronic database of formalized medical histories like a table "object-feature". These results were subjected to stepwise multidimensional statistical processing using non-parametric dispersive analysis by Kruskal-Wallis, correlation analysis with Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, and ROC - analysis. The statistically significant level was p <0,05 (5%). We determined that the forecast of pneumonia poor outcome in patients with chronic leukemia is associated with: leukocytes, lymphocytes, neutrophils, platelets, erythrocytes, hemoglobin and immunity: B (CD19+) (G/L), T (CD4+) (%), immunoregulatory index (CD4+/СD8+) and IgG (g/l). A mathematical model for predicting the pneumonia poor outcome in patients with chronic leukemia was created in our study: PPO=exp (-0.073-0.994*(leukocytes)+4.842*(P.aeroginosa))/[1+exp (-0.073-0.994*(leukocytes)+4.842*(R. aeroginosa)]. Using in clinical practice the proposed mathematical model of prediction pneumonia poor outcome in patients with chronic leukemia will allow determining the treatment place and timely optimizing the treatment program.