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Critical factors for mitigating car traffic in cities
Vincent Verbavatz1, Marc Barthelemy1,2
1Institut de Physique Théorique, Université Paris Saclay, CEA, CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
Plos One
|July 16, 2019
Summary
Urban car use and congestion are better predicted by city size and public transport access than density. Improving public transport or reducing urban sprawl can mitigate traffic and CO2 emissions.
Area of Science:
- Urban planning
- Transportation science
- Statistical physics
Background:
- Urban car traffic models are often region-specific or incomplete.
- A theoretical understanding of urban car use and congestion parameters is lacking.
Purpose of the Study:
- Develop a generic model for urban car use, CO2 emissions, and commuting time.
- Identify key parameters controlling urban car-related quantities.
Main Methods:
- Combined economic and transport factors using a statistical physics approach.
- Developed a generic analytical model.
- Validated predictions against data from 25 major global urban areas.
Main Results:
- City area size and public transport density are more influential than urban density.
- The model accurately predicts car driver share, CO2 emissions, and average commuting time.
- Urban density is only beneficial if it improves public transport access.
Conclusions:
- Mitigation strategies should focus on reducing urbanized area or enhancing public transport density and access.
- Policy interventions should prioritize public transport improvements over simply increasing population density.
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