Pharmacoeconomic and epidemiological bases of optimal rotavirus vaccine supply for Ukrainian population

Introduction: Several studies has shown that rotaviruses play a leading role in the structure of acute intestinal infections (AII) of viral etiology in children. In the National vaccination calendar of Ukraine, vaccination against rotavirus infection (RVI) is classified as recommended, with the expected goal of reducing the number of severe RVI cases among under five-year-old children. Nevertheless, despite the positive epidemiological and clinical effects of vaccination against RVI, it remains unclear how appropriate the introduction of rotavirus vaccines is in terms of potential costs and benefits, as well as determining the optimal level of subsidy required to cover part of the costs of voluntary vaccination of the population. The aim: Study of optimal subsidy level of rotavirus vaccine in Ukraine using epidemiological and pharmacoeconomic modeling.

Materials and methods: The retrospective epidemiological data of the monthly RVI incidence in Ukraine as well as the population number from 2010 to 2016 formed the information basis for determining the transmission parameter of the viral agent. The scenario of RVI epidemic process as an acute intestinal infection from the point of view of mathematical epidemiology is best described by developed mathematical model. Cost-benefit of rotavirus vaccination was studied with the use of developed pharmacoeconomic criteria.

Results and conclusions: Prediction of possible implications of RVI vaccination and finding optimal level of vaccine supply involves a comprehensive study of the epidemic process peculiarities of this infection with development of an adequate epidemiological model. We have proposed a model of RVI epidemiological process in Ukraine, determining its main parameters with the use of available retrospective data of anual number of RVI cases for the period from 2010 to 2016. The developed model was used as an analytical tool for analyzing influence of different levels of vaccine supply on vaccination cost-benefit. The results of research showed that the use of epidemiological modeling in pharmacoeconomic analysis of rotavirus vaccination made it possible to determine analytically optimal level of vaccination subsidy level.