Models for Predicting Incident Delirium in Hospitalized Older Adults: A Systematic Review

The purpose of this systematic review is to summarize the reported risk prediction models and identify the most prevalent factors for incident delirium in older inpatient populations (age ≥ 65 years). In the future, these risk factors could be used to develop a delirium risk prediction model in the electronic health record that can be used by the Hospital Elder Life Program to reduce the incidence of delirium.

A medical librarian customized and conducted a search strategy for all published articles on delirium prediction models using an array of electronic databases and specific inclusion and exclusion criteria. Then, a geriatrician and two research associates assessed the quality of the selected studies using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS).

A total of 4,351 articles were identified from initial literature search. After review, data were extracted from 12 studies. The quality of these studies was assessed using NOS and ranged from 4 to 8. The most common risk factors reported were dementia, decreased functional status, high blood urea nitrogen-to-creatinine ratio, infection and severe illness.

The most prevalent factors associated with incidence of delirium in hospitalized older patients identified by this systematic review could be used to develop an electronic health record-generated risk prediction model to identify inpatients at risk of developing delirium.