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Updated: Jan 20, 2026
Classification of Systems-I
Predictive Capabilities of Three Widely Used Pathology Classification Systems and a Simplified Classification
Shu-Wei Duan1, Yan Mei1, Jian Liu1
1Department of Nephrology, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Chinese PLA Institute of Nephrology, State Key Laboratory of Kidney Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Kidney Diseases, Beijing, China.
Insights
The Lee grade and Oxford classification better predict IgA nephropathy (IgAN) progression than clinical indicators alone. A simplified Beijing classification also shows similar predictive efficiency for IgAN prognosis.
Area of Science:
- Nephrology
- Pathology
- Medical Prognostics
Background:
- IgA nephropathy (IgAN) prognosis relies on various pathological classification systems.
- The comparative prognostic value of Lee grade, Oxford classification, and Haas classification in IgAN remains unclear.
- A need exists for a simplified, effective classification system for IgAN.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare the prognostic capabilities of the Lee grade, Oxford classification, and Haas classification for IgAN.
- To identify a simplified pathological classification for predicting IgAN progression.
- To evaluate the incremental prognostic value of these classifications over clinical indicators.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of 412 IgAN cases diagnosed between 2002-2007.
- Endpoints: progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or ≥50% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).
- Evaluation of predictive capabilities using discrimination (continuous net reclassification) and calibration (Akaike information criterion [AIC]).
Main Results:
- Lee grade and Oxford classification demonstrated higher prognostic value than clinical indicators alone for IgAN progression.
- Haas classification showed lower prognostic value compared to Lee grade and Oxford classification.
- Hierarchical (Beijing) classification using M and T lesions exhibited prognostic value similar to the Oxford classification.
Conclusions:
- Lee grade and Oxford classification offer incremental prognostic value for IgAN beyond clinical factors.
- Haas classification is less effective for predicting IgAN prognosis compared to Lee grade and Oxford classification.
- Simplified hierarchical (Beijing) classification maintains predictive efficiency for IgAN outcomes.
Background/Aims:
Several pathological classification systems were commonly used in clinical practice to predict the prognosis of IgA nephropathy (IgAN). However, how prognostic value differs between these systems is unclear. The aim of this study was to compare the Lee grade, the Oxford classification, and the Haas classification and to find a simplified classification.
Methods:
We retrospectively analyzed IgAN cases diagnosed between January 2002 and December 2007. The endpoints were progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or a ≥50% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). The predictive capabilities were evaluated by comparing the ability of discrimination (continuous net reclassification) and calibration (Akaike information criterion [AIC]).
Results:
A total of 412 IgAN patients were included in the study. The average follow-up period was 80.62 ± 23.63 months. A total of 44 (10.68%) patients progressed to ESRD, and 70 (16.99%) patients showed a ≥50% decline in eGFR. All multivariate Cox regression models had limited power for high AIC values. The prognostic values of the Lee grade and the Oxford classification were higher than those of models containing only established baseline clinical indicators for progression to ESRD or a ≥50% decline in eGFR (Lee grade 0.50, 95% CI 0.21-0.74; Oxford classification 0.48, 95% CI 0.28-0.71). The prognostic value of the Haas classification was lower than that of the other pathological classification systems for progression to ESRD or a ≥50% decline in eGFR (Lee grade 0.53, 95% CI 0.23-0.92; Oxford classification 0.59, 95% CI 0.10-0.74). The prognostic value of hierarchical classification (Beijing classification) using M and T lesion was similar to the Oxford classification.
Conclusions:
Both the Lee grade and the Oxford classification showed incremental prognostic values beyond established baseline clinical indicators. The Haas classification was slightly inferior to the Lee grade and the Oxford classification. The hierarchical classification (Beijing classification) using less pathological parameters does not lose predictive efficiency.
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