[Trend of mortality and decomposition on malignant tumors in Shandong province, 1970-2013]

Objective: To describe the mortality trend of major malignant tumors in Shandong province, from 1970 to 2013. Methods: Data related to cancer mortality were obtained from the Shandong Death Registration System and three nationwide retrospective cause-of-death surveys. Trends of overall mortality and major causes of death were described using the indicators as: mortality rates and age-standardized mortality rates, through comparing the three large-scale mortality surveys in Shandong province. Difference decomposing method was applied to estimate the contribution of demographic and non-demographic factors for the change of mortality. Results: From 1970 to 2013, the crude mortality rate of malignant tumors in Shandong was increasing. The age standard mortality rate was increasing and then decreasing. The composition of cancer deaths in the all-cause-deaths was seen increasing and then decreasing as well. Both demographic and non-demographic factors contributed to the increase of crude cancer mortality rate. With the gradual increase of the proportion of population, its role exceeded the non-demographic factors. The age-standardized mortality rate of malignant tumors in 2011-2013 was lower than that in 2004-2005. Lung cancer mortality rose from the fifth to the first place, with an increase of 6.81 times from 1970-1974 to 2011-2013. Ranking of gastric cancer mortality dropped from first to the third place, with esophageal cancer dropped from second to the fourth. After adjusted by China's standard population in 1964, the mortality rate of lung cancer was still rapidly increasing, but the age-standardized mortality rates of esophageal cancer was gradually decreasing. The crude and age-standardized mortality rates of cervical cancer showed a rapid downward trend, reduced 87.00% and 93.00% respectively from 1970-1974 to 2011-2013. Conclusions: Malignant tumors were still major threats to the residents of Shandong province. The changing trend of different malignant tumors presented an inconsistent nature which called for different intervention strategies be carried out, accordingly.