Effects of urbanization on productivity of terrestrial ecological systems based on linear fitting: a case study in...

The terrestrial ecosystem productivity and foundation of regional ecosystem services have been significantly influenced by recent urbanization processes. This study assesses the changes in terrestrial ecosystem productivity in Jiangsu from the years of 2000 to 2015 in response to the urbanization. A linear model that incorporates the traditional equalization method is proposed to improve the estimation accuracy of net primary productivity (NPP) loss. Results revealed that the land area of urban construction expanded rapidly during the research period to encompass an area of 8672.8 km². The rate of expansion was highest during 2005-2010. Additionally, the expansion rate of urban construction land was considerably higher in southern Jiangsu compared to the northern areas. The NPP exhibited a rising tendency from the year of 2000 to 2015, and varied from 33.30 to 40.23 Tg C/y. It was higher in the central parts, which include the cities of Yancheng and Nantong. The increase in urban construction land has resulted in a significant reduction in the terrestrial ecosystem productivity, i.e. a cumulative NPP loss of 2.55-2.88 Tg C during the research period. The NPP losses due to the conversion from cropland to constrction land were the highest, followed by the wetland. The work in this paper indicates that the rate of future productivity losses in terrestrial ecosystem in northern Jiangsu would be faster than the southern areas.