Open Source Energy System Modeling Using Break-Even Costs to Inform State-Level Policy: A North Carolina Case Study

Rigorous model-based analysis can help inform state-level energy and climate policy. In this study, we utilize an open-source energy system optimization model and publicly available data sets to examine future electricity generation, CO₂ emissions, and CO₂ abatement costs for the North Carolina electric power sector through 2050. Model scenarios include uncertainty in future fuel prices, a hypothetical CO₂ cap, and an extended renewable portfolio standard. Across the modeled scenarios, solar photovoltaics represent the most cost-effective low-carbon technology, while trade-offs among carbon constrained scenarios largely involve natural gas and renewables. We also develop a new method to calculate break-even costs, which indicate the capital costs at which specific technologies become cost-effective within the model. Significant variation in break-even costs are observed across different technologies and scenarios. We illustrate how break-even costs can be used to inform the development of an extended renewable portfolio standard in North Carolina. Utilizing the break-even costs to calibrate a tax credit for onshore wind, we find that the resultant wind deployment displaces other renewables, and thus has a negligible effect on CO₂ emissions. Such insights can provide crucial guidance to policymakers weighing different policy options. This study provides an analytical framework to conduct similar analyses in other states using an open source model and freely available data sets.