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Updated: Jan 1, 2026

A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data
Published on: December 9, 2015
Relapse recovery: The forgotten variable in multiple sclerosis clinical trials
Orhun H Kantarci1, Burcu Zeydan2, Elizabeth J Atkinson2
1From the Department of Neurology (O.H.K., B.Z., M.R.), Mayo Clinic College of Medicine, Mayo Clinic Center for Multiple Sclerosis and CNS Demyelinating Diseases; Department of Health Sciences Research (E.J.A.), Mayo Clinic College of Medicine; Department of Radiology (B.Z.), Mayo Clinic College of Medicine; Department of Neurology (B.L.C.), Formerly a Clinical Fellow at the Mayo Clinic College of Medicine, Mayo Clinic Center for Multiple Sclerosis and CNS Demyelinating Diseases, Rochester, MN; HealthPartners Neuroscience Center (B.L.C.), Saint Paul, MN; and US Medical (C.C-.V.), Biogen Inc., Boston, MA. kantarci.orhun@mayo.edu.
Starting disease-modifying therapy (DMT) immediately after a multiple sclerosis (MS) relapse, especially for those with poor recovery, significantly improves the chances of a less disabling, more benign disease course.
Area of Science:
- Neurology
- Clinical Trials
- Immunology
Background:
- Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic autoimmune disease affecting the central nervous system.
- Disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) aim to reduce disease activity and slow progression.
- The optimal timing for initiating DMT after an initial relapse remains a key clinical question.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate if the timing of DMT initiation (immediate vs. delayed) based on recovery from an initial relapse impacts long-term disability accumulation in MS patients.
- To compare the long-term outcomes of patients with good vs. poor recovery after an initial relapse, stratified by treatment initiation timing.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of interferon beta-1a in clinically isolated syndrome with a 10-year extension.
- Patients were categorized by recovery status (good vs. not good) and treatment group (immediate vs. 3-year delayed DMT).
- Kaplan-Meier statistics and hazard ratios were used to assess time to disability milestones (Expanded Disability Status Scale [EDSS] ≥2.5 or ≥4.0).
Main Results:
- Patients with poor recovery who received immediate DMT showed a trend towards reduced disability (EDSS ≥2.5) compared to those with delayed treatment.
- Immediate DMT initiation in patients without good recovery was associated with a significantly lower risk of reaching EDSS ≥2.5 at 1 year (HR=0.40, p=0.011).
- Immediate DMT initiation in patients with good recovery also showed a favorable trend in reducing disability accumulation.
Conclusions:
- For MS patients experiencing poor recovery after an initial relapse, immediate DMT initiation is associated with a more favorable, less disabling disease course.
- Early intervention with DMT appears crucial for mitigating long-term disability, particularly in patients who do not achieve full recovery.
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