[PREDICTOIN OF THE COURSE OF BRONCHOPULMONARY DYSPLASIA IN PRETERM CHILDREN UP TO 3 YEARS OF AGE]

The introduction of modern technologies for nursing premature babies has led to an improvement in the survival of premature infants and, at the same time, to an increase in the incidence of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD). Тhe aim of work - to determine the characteristics of the course of BPD in premature infants and to provide methods for predicting the course of BPD up to 3 years of age. Using Spearman's nonparametric correlation analysis, a direct correlation between the severity of BPD at 6 months of age and the surgical closure of the hemodynamically significant patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) in the neonatal period (k=0.19; p=0.022) and between the severity of BPD in age 3 years and the presence of hemodynamically insignificant PDA later than the neonatal period (k=0.18; p = 0.031). Using the heterogeneous sequential Wald-Genkin procedure, algorithms were developed for predicting the severity of BPD at the age of 6, 12 months, and 3 years. Testing the reliability of the algorithms showed that in each of the age groups the correct diagnoses were 94,3% - 91,5% - 90,3%, uncertain - 4,3% - 6,7% - 7,4%, and false - 1,4% - 1,8% - 2,3% of cases, respectively, with a 95 % level of reliability. PDA should be considered as a factor that can aggravate the course of BPD in preterm children at all stages of observation. Creating diagnostic scales with a set diagnostic threshold allows predicting the course of BPD taking into account the characteristics of each observed child, which contributes to the individualization of follow-up observation of preterm children.