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Community detection in networks without observing edges.

Till Hoffmann1, Leto Peel2, Renaud Lambiotte3

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We introduce a Bayesian hierarchical model for time series community detection. This method propagates uncertainty, enabling multiscale analysis and optimal scale selection for financial and climate data.

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Area of Science:

  • Statistics
  • Data Science
  • Time Series Analysis

Background:

  • Community detection in time series is crucial for understanding complex systems.
  • Existing methods often rely on point estimates, neglecting uncertainty propagation.
  • Identifying communities across multiple scales requires robust analytical frameworks.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a Bayesian hierarchical model for end-to-end time series community detection.
  • To incorporate uncertainty propagation from raw data to community labels.
  • To enable multiscale community detection and optimal scale selection.

Main Methods:

  • Bayesian hierarchical modeling
  • Uncertainty propagation
  • Model comparison for scale selection

Main Results:

  • An end-to-end community detection algorithm that preserves uncertainty.
  • Demonstrated capability for multiscale community detection.
  • Successful application to financial (S&P100 index) and climate data.

Conclusions:

  • The proposed Bayesian model offers a robust approach to time series community detection.
  • Uncertainty propagation enhances the reliability of community labels.
  • The method is versatile, applicable to diverse datasets like financial markets and climate patterns.