Equity dimensions of the decline in under-five mortality in Ghana: a joinpoint regression analysis

There has been a global rise in interest and efforts to improve under-five mortality rates, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Ghana has made some progress in improving this outcome; however, the extent of such progress and its equity implications remains understudied.

This study used a joinpoint regression analysis to assess the significance of changes in trends of under-five mortality rates in Ghana between 1988 and 2017 using data from seven rounds of the Ghana Demographic and Health Survey. Annual percentage change (APC) was estimated. The APCs of different dimensions of equity (residence, administrative region, maternal education and wealth quintile) were compared by coincidence test - to determine similarity in joinpoint regression functions via 10 000 Monte Carlo resampling.

There has been progress in reduction of under-five mortality in Ghana between 1988 and 2017 with an annual percentage change of -3.49%. Disaggregation of the trends showed that the most rapid improvement in under-five mortality rates occurred in the Upper East Region (APC = -5.0%). The closing of under-five mortality equity gaps in the study period has been uneven in the country. The gap between rural and urban rates has closed the most, followed by regional gaps (between Upper East and Ashanti Region), while the most persistent gaps remain in maternal education and wealth quintile.

The findings suggest that programmatic interventions have been more successful in reducing geographic (rural-urban and by administrative region) than non-geographic (maternal education and wealth quintile) inequities in under-five mortality in Ghana. To accelerate reduction and bridge the inequities in under-five mortality, Ghana may need to pursue more social policies aimed at redistribution.