Related Experiment Video
Updated: Dec 26, 2025
10:16
X-ray Beam Induced Current Measurements for Multi-Modal X-ray Microscopy of Solar Cells
Published on: August 20, 2019
14.3K
A Solar-Centric Approach to Improving Estimates of Exposure Processes for Coronal Mass Ejections
Kathrin Kirchen1,2, William Harbert1,2, Jay Apt2,3
1Department of Geology and Environmental Science, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
Summary
This study estimates extreme space weather event probability using Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment (LASCO) data. It found a 1.72% CME arrival rate, with decadal probabilities for Carrington-level events between 0.0002 and 0.016.
Area of Science:
- Space Physics
- Solar Physics
- Statistical Astronomy
Background:
- Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) pose significant space weather risks.
- Accurate probability estimations for extreme CMEs are crucial for hazard assessment.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a solar-centric method for estimating extreme CME probabilities.
- To assess the likelihood of CMEs impacting Earth.
Main Methods:
- Utilized SOHO/LASCO CME Catalog and near-Earth ICME data.
- Applied statistical analysis and time-independent distribution fitting.
- Extrapolated CME speeds to estimate extreme event probabilities.
Main Results:
- Approximately 1.72% of observed CMEs reach Earth.
- Inferred decadal probabilities for events like the 2012 storm (0.01-0.09) and Carrington event (0.0002-0.016).
Conclusions:
- The study provides a first-order estimate for extreme space weather event probability.
- The methodology offers a framework for predicting future CME impacts.
More Related Videos
Related Concept Videos
01:09Radiation Pressure: Problem Solving
727
The radiation pressure applied by an electromagnetic wave on a perfectly absorbing surface equals the energy density of the wave. The wave's momentum also gets transferred to the surface when an electromagnetic wave is entirely absorbed by it. The rate at which momentum is transmitted to an absorbing surface perpendicular to the propagation direction equals the force on the surface.
The average value of the rate of momentum transfer divided by the absorbing area represents the average force...
The average value of the rate of momentum transfer divided by the absorbing area represents the average force...
727
01:25Calculation of Electric Flux
2.7K
Consider the electric field of an oppositely charged, parallel-plate system and an imaginary box between those plates. Let the bottom face of the box be ABCD, and the top face be FGHK. The electric field between the plates is uniform and points from the positive plate toward the negative plate. The calculation of this field's flux through the box's various faces shows that the net flux through the box is zero. Why does the flux cancel out here?
2.7K
01:20Maxwell-Boltzmann Distribution: Problem Solving
2.8K
Individual molecules in a gas move in random directions, but a gas containing numerous molecules has a predictable distribution of molecular speeds, which is known as the Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution, f(v).
This distribution function f(v) is defined by saying that the expected number N (v1,v2) of particles with speeds between v1 and v2 is given by
This distribution function f(v) is defined by saying that the expected number N (v1,v2) of particles with speeds between v1 and v2 is given by
2.8K
01:06What are Estimates?
7.8K
It isn't easy to measure a parameter such as the mean height or the mean weight of a population. So, we draw samples from the population and calculate the mean height or mean weight of the individuals in the sample. This sample data acts as a representative measure of the population parameter. These sample statistics are known as estimates.
The estimate for the mean of a sample is denoted by ͞x, whereas the mean of the population is designated as μ. Further, parameters such...
The estimate for the mean of a sample is denoted by ͞x, whereas the mean of the population is designated as μ. Further, parameters such...
7.8K
01:10Kepler's First Law of Planetary Motion
5.2K
In the early 17th century, German astronomer and mathematician Johannes Kepler postulated three laws for the motion of planets in the solar system. He formulated his first two laws based on the observations of his forebears, Nikolaus Copernicus and Tycho Brahe.
Polish astronomer Nikolaus Copernicus put forth a theory that stated a heliocentric model for the solar system. According to this heliocentric theory, all the planets, including Earth, orbit the Sun in circular orbits.
On the other hand,...
Polish astronomer Nikolaus Copernicus put forth a theory that stated a heliocentric model for the solar system. According to this heliocentric theory, all the planets, including Earth, orbit the Sun in circular orbits.
On the other hand,...
5.2K
01:28Magnetostatic Boundary Conditions
1.5K
An electric field suffers a discontinuity at a surface charge. Similarly, a magnetic field is discontinuous at a surface current. The perpendicular component of a magnetic field is continuous across the interface of two magnetic mediums. In contrast, its parallel component, perpendicular to the current, is discontinuous by the amount equal to the product of the vacuum permeability and the surface current. Like the scalar potential in electrostatics, the vector potential is also continuous...
1.5K