Infectious diseases spreading on a metapopulation network coupled with its second-neighbor network

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Network Science
• Mathematical Biology

Background:

• Traditional infectious disease models often overlook indirect travel pathways.
• Metapopulation network models typically focus on direct transportation links.
• Indirect transportation can play a significant role in disease dissemination.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the impact of indirect travel on disease transmission within metapopulation networks.
• To develop a novel model incorporating second-neighbor networks (SNNs) to account for indirect connections.
• To analyze the stability and spread dynamics of infectious diseases considering both direct and indirect travel.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a global aviation network to model indirect flights as connections between second neighbors.
• Proposed and analyzed a susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) metapopulation model coupled with its SNN.
• Calculated the basic reproduction number and proved the global stability of disease-free and endemic equilibria.

Main Results:

• The basic reproduction number was found to be independent of human mobility.
• Travel solely along the SNN can hinder disease spread if the SNN is disconnected.
• Travel along both the primary network and its SNN accelerates disease transmission.

Conclusions:

• Indirect transportation, modeled via SNNs, significantly contributes to infectious disease spread.
• For emerging diseases, consistent connectivity between the primary network and its SNN poses a threat.
• Controlling indirect travel pathways is essential for epidemic mitigation strategies.
• The model's framework is applicable to other transportation networks like high-speed rail.