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Modelling HIV/AIDS and monkeypox co-infection.

C P Bhunu1,2, S Mushayabasa1, J M Hyman3

  • 1Department of Applied Mathematics, Modelling Biomedical Systems Research Group, National University of Science and Technology, P. O. Box 939, Ascot, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe.

Applied Mathematics and Computation
|November 8, 2022
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Emerging monkeypox outbreaks highlight risks from other pox viruses. Mathematical modeling shows HIV/AIDS significantly enhances monkeypox transmission and vice versa, with implications for public health.

Keywords:
Centre Manifold theoryLyapunov functionMonkeypox and HIV/AIDS

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Biology
  • Virology

Background:

  • Recent human monkeypox outbreaks underscore the public health threat posed by pox viruses beyond smallpox.
  • Co-infection with Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) and monkeypox presents complex epidemiological challenges.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and analyze a deterministic mathematical model for the co-infection dynamics of HIV/AIDS and monkeypox.
  • To investigate the stability of endemic equilibria and the impact of disease parameters on transmission.

Main Methods:

  • Formulation of a deterministic co-infection model.
  • Application of Centre Manifold theory for local stability analysis.
  • Utilized Lyapunov function approach for global stability assessment.
  • Calculated basic reproduction numbers and performed numerical simulations.

Main Results:

  • Endemic equilibria for both HIV/AIDS and monkeypox co-infection were found to be locally and globally asymptotically stable.
  • Increased prevalence of monkeypox in animal reservoirs correlates with higher human infection rates.
  • Numerical simulations indicate a synergistic effect, where HIV infection amplifies monkeypox transmission and vice versa.

Conclusions:

  • The mathematical model provides insights into the complex interplay between HIV/AIDS and monkeypox.
  • Threshold conditions for disease competition were identified, informing potential control strategies.
  • Findings emphasize the critical need to consider co-infections in public health interventions for both diseases.