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Projected changes in flooding: a continental U.S. perspective
Gabriele Villarini1, Wei Zhang1
1IIHR-Hydroscience & Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa.
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
|May 10, 2020
Summary
Projected increases in maximum daily river flow are expected across the US, particularly in the Southeast and Pacific Northwest. Climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 show significant shifts in seasonal flooding patterns.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Hydrology
- Environmental Modeling
Background:
- Understanding projected changes in extreme river flow is crucial for water resource management and flood risk assessment.
- Previous studies have utilized global climate models (GCMs) to simulate future hydrological conditions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project changes in annual and seasonal maximum daily runoff across the continental United States.
- To assess the performance of GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in simulating runoff extremes.
Main Methods:
- Utilized outputs from eight GCMs from CMIP6.
- Analyzed projected changes in annual and seasonal maximum daily runoff at a regional scale.
- Evaluated GCMs' ability to reproduce observed changes in runoff extremes.
Main Results:
- GCMs generally reproduce observed runoff extreme changes, especially seasonally, with no single model outperforming others across all regions and seasons.
- Annual maximum daily runoff is projected to increase in the 21st century across large areas of the southeastern US and Pacific Northwest.
- Decreases in annual maximum daily runoff are projected for the Rocky Mountains and northern Great Plains, with the most significant changes occurring in winter and spring.
Conclusions:
- Significant regional variations in projected changes to maximum daily runoff are expected throughout the 21st century.
- Seasonal patterns of runoff extremes will likely shift, with winter and spring experiencing the most pronounced changes.
- The findings highlight the need for adaptive water management strategies to address future flood risks under climate change.
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